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Can your running data predict an injury before it happens?
A study published in PM&R followed 643 runners training for the 2022 New York City Marathon over 16 weeks, using their Strava training logs and weekly surveys to build machine-learning models predicting injury the following week. When limited to weeks when runners weren't already modifying training due to injury, model performance dropped dramatically, suggesting training data plus surveys aren't yet enough to reliably predict injury in otherwise healthy runners. Injuries were self-reported rather than clinically diagnosed, and the relationship between training patterns and injury risk was complex, with no simple mileage threshold that worked for everyone.
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